Dublin South-West constituency profile: Green Party seat looks most vulnerable in this left-leaning five-seater

Outgoing TDs: Seán Crowe (SF); John Lahart (FF); Colm Brophy (FG); Francis Noel Duffy (GP); Paul Murphy (PBP).
Who are the candidates running in the Dublin South-West constituency?
Dublin South-West constituency returning officer website
Dublin South-West remains a five-seater but for that to happen, the constituency had to downsize. It has lost a substantial population in Tallaght to Dublin Mid-West with a small gain in Terenure. The net outcome will be a small disadvantage to soft-left and centrist parties in this left-leaning constituency.
Sinn Féin’s Seán Crowe won almost 30 per cent of the vote in 2020 and would have pulled in a second candidate if the party had run one. In the event, the main beneficiary was Paul Murphy of People Before Profit, who got 3,500 transfers from him in the second count.
A year ago, you would have said two Sinn Féin with Murphy struggling. Not any more. Sinn Féin had a poorish local election, losing one of its seats, while People Before Profit gained a seat on South Dublin County Council.
Fine Gael has held a seat here continuously since 2007. Colm Brophy has a solid vote. The Fianna Fáil vote also looks relatively solid but sitting TD John Lahart will rely heavily on the party’s second candidate, popular Tallaght councillor Teresa Costello, pulling in the impressive vote she got in the local elections.
The seat that looks most vulnerable is that of Francis Noel Duffy of the Green Party. Despite holding its own in other parts of Dublin, the party lost all its council seats in this constituency in the local elections and there is a sense of foreboding that he might lose his seat.
We know from recent elections that the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats transfer heavily to each other. Labour won three council seats in this constituency last June and if Ciarán Ahern of Labour stays ahead of Duffy and of Ross O’Mullane of the Social Democrats he could be in contention for the last seat.
Independent Alan Edge topped the poll in Firhouse-Bohernabreena and should figure in the mix. So could Sarah Barnes, the second Fine Gael candidate. If the poll numbers are right Fine Gael could be in contention for a second seat here, but that might come at the expense of Fianna Fáil.
Dublin South-West experienced a sizeable population increase since 2016 but it was already a five-seater. It therefore had to cede territory. A population of 11,335 from Tallaght-Fettercairn transferred to Dublin Mid-West. It did gain the Terenure-Cherryfield electroal division, with a population of 2,229, from Dublin South-Central. The changes favour the centre, soft-left, and right-of-centre parties in the constituency, while impacting on left-wing parties and candidates.
Big issues in the constituency include housing, poverty, unemployment and access to health services.
Possible outcome: Fine Gael (1), Fianna Fáil (1), Sinn Féin (1), People Before Profit-Solidarity (1), Labour (1)